Do expensive

Better horses cost more. That's the assumption the bloodstock market runs on. A well-bred yearling by a proven sire from a strong family can sell for 500,000 guineas. Sometimes over a million.

For each of 17,500 yearlings, we built a simple expected price based on two things the market already knows at the time of sale: what the sire's yearlings typically sell for that year, and how the dam's older foals were rated on the track. Anything the horse sells for above or below that estimate is the premium — the market's price for the physical, the consignor, the competition in the ring, the fashion of the moment.